Goldilocks & Sisyphus
It can feel like pushing a boulder up a hill, but real-world projects will help shape policies and programs that move the market.
“Sisyphus” drawing by Franz Von Stuck
By: David Hodgins, Executive Director, LABBC
“Fairytales take up matters that are primal and pertinent,” says Maria Tatar, a Harvard professor and Chair of the Committee on Degrees in Folklore and Mythology. “They remain relevant today because of our need to express societal concerns. We use these stories to work out cultural anxieties.”
There’s plenty of anxiety to be worked out in our culture today, not the least of which centers around the question of how to bring human activity into balance with nature.
Although programs to encourage energy efficiency upgrades to existing buildings have operated for decades, at current rates it will take more than 60 years to retrofit our commercial buildings—and 500 years to retrofit our homes and apartments.
More aggressive solutions are clearly needed. But what’s the right combination of carrots and sticks?
Voluntary measures have not worked, but neither have strict mandates. Incentives haven’t moved the market; and even with federal support, the required investment is so large we can’t rely on grants and incentives to fund the work.
So the question is, how can we design policy and programs to accelerate the market? As I think about the way forward, I’m thinking about Goldilocks…
As with most fairytales, the details have evolved over time, but today we tend to remember that moment when she discovers the bowl of porridge that’s “just right.”
The concept of "just right" is easily understood and has been applied to a wide range of disciplines, from psychology to biology, economics and engineering, where it is formally referred to as the "Goldilocks Principle." Human civilization has thrived in a “Goldilocks Zone”—not too hot, not too cold. This is what we have had for 10,000 years since we left the last ice age.
How is this relevant?
A lot of people in the sustainability movement cite our obsession with consumption and growth as the root cause of our problems. They talk about efficiency and conservation: using less, traveling less. But we are hardwired by evolution to consume more whenever we have the chance, and we have a really hard time thinking about how our choices today will impact us in the future—let alone our children, other people or the planet. To a lot of people, Sustainability sounds like Austerity. It runs counter to our innate drive for more.
So how can we turn the ship?
In the words of Seth Godin, “the opposite of ‘more’ [is] not ‘less.’ If we care enough, the opposite of ‘more’ is ‘better.’” We need policies and programs that lead to a better outcome than the status quo, with the minimum amount of intervention, friction and subsidy.
Why?
Because improving energy performance is like forming a new habit—it’s hard. In fact, forming new habits is such a big challenge that an entire industry has sprung up to address it. There’s a new mythology around habit formation—complete with modern fairytales told on Instagram…
There are even laws! The “Four Laws of Behavior Change,” put forward in one of the new sacred texts, provide a simple framework for creating good habits and breaking bad ones.
How to create a good habit:
The 1st law (Cue): Make it obvious.
The 2nd law (Craving): Make it attractive.
The 3rd law (Response): Make it easy.
The 4th law (Reward): Make it satisfying.
How to break a bad habit:
Inversion of the 1st law (Cue): Make it invisible.
Inversion of the 2nd law (Craving): Make it unattractive.
Inversion of the 3rd law (Response): Make it difficult.
Inversion of the 4th law (Reward): Make it unsatisfying.
Translating this into the context of building retrofits, we’re trying to break a bad habit (underinvestment in energy performance) and create a good habit (active investment in and focus on energy performance). Policy provides a Cue to focus on energy performance, and a Reward (or punishment) for the Response. Programs can help bridge the gap from Cue to Reward by making the behavior attractive and easy (or at least easier) by providing technical assistance, financial incentives and opportunities for recognition.
As the cycle repeats, a habit loop begins to form, and the task gets easier. “Mood follows action,” and active inspiration produces momentum.
Then we get bored…
Once a habit is established, you have to keep challenging yourself in small ways to stay engaged.
Aaaand we’re back to Goldilocks…
Humans experience peak motivation—and peak performance—when working on tasks that are right on the edge of their current abilities. Tasks that are way below your current abilities are boring. Think: playing “Connect Four” against a 3-year-old, or parking garage lighting retrofits. Yawn. Tasks that are too far beyond your current abilities are discouraging, like playing one-on-one against LeBron James, or trying to decarbonize a national portfolio all by yourself… I’m rooting for you!
But tasks that are just beyond your current ability—where if you don’t do your absolute best you might fail—are incredibly motivating.
Not too hard. Not too easy. Just right.
Another term for this feeling—when the world fades away, when there’s no noise, when you can “be the ball”—is flow. Researchers have found that, to access the flow state, “the activity typically requires the learning of skills and has clear goals with quick and unambiguous feedback.”
Good policy challenges real estate professionals to learn and apply new skills, to work just beyond their current abilities. Measurement and feedback come through public disclosure of performance data. And it naturally gets harder to save energy as you pick all the low-hanging fruit—you have to get more creative, and that’s the fun part.
Challenge + Feedback + Continual Improvement = Flow
There is a bigger discussion to be had on what the policies and programs should look like, but I propose we start here and now—with real projects—and use what we learn to figure out the answers.
What are the opportunities to decarbonize existing buildings today?
Are the necessary technologies commercially available today? If so, what is the lead time? If not, what are manufacturers saying?
What can a building do, on its own, today—within its existing electrical footprint—and when is it necessary to involve the utility?
What is the process to upgrade infrastructure? What is the timeline? How much will it cost?
What are the other barriers?
Where can policies and programs help?
Real-world projects will help to get this last question right. Not too much regulation, not too little. Not too much subsidy, not too little. Just the right amount of each to let the market decide what “better” looks like.
Sometimes this work feels like a slog… which reminds me of another story…
For his crimes against the gods, Sisyphus was sentenced to push a massive boulder up a hill for eternity. As soon as he reached the top, the boulder would roll back down, and he’d have to start all over. This story has become a popular metaphor for the absurdity of the human condition, and it feels apt here.
We’ve been doing this work for a long time. We want to be at the destination, but we are still at the beginning. The reality is that we are breaking new ground, building the foundation. I am not a patient person by nature, so I have to remind myself of some good advice I got. If we try to go vertical too quickly, before we’ve built a strong foundation, whatever we build will probably fall over. But if we put in the work, if we build a strong foundation, we can create something amazing.
Without good policies and programs, things will not get better. It can feel like pushing a boulder up a hill, but real-world projects are what will help us get the balance “just right,” and push us past the tipping point.
One must imagine Sisyphus in flow.
Read Executive Director David Hodgins’ previous post: New Math: An Invitation